Public Policy at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy | University of Toronto

Why is the speed limit 50kph on residential streets? Why not save more lives and lower it? Why is climate change more of a preoccupation than a meteor wiping out civilization? Do security checks in airports make us safer? What rules should airlines be obliged to use for deciding to de-ice or not? Shdould snow tires be compulsory as in Quebec? How safe are genetically modified organisms and what should our public policy on them be? Should we oblige people to get vaccines even though we know some people will get sick from them? Why are highway fatalities on a holiday weekend less troubling than fewer fatalities in a plane crash?

Course Outline
This day and a half course will cover topics in risk analysis for public servants. The objective is to provide a practical grounding in the varied elements of risk analysis.

The first part of the course will very briefly review the technical conduct of risk analysis including understanding risk vs. uncertainty, the role of pooling, sharing and shifting risks, finding optimal risks to be assumed, as well as non-linearities and corner solutions (catastrophes and worst case scenarios). In addition, time value and time distribution of costs and benefits, and the role of science will be discussed.
There will be a group project where participants will work on an actual public policy issue requiring an assessment of risk and integrating it into policy analysis.

The second part of the course will look at integrating risk analysis into decision-making for public servants. This would deal with where to fit risk analysis into cost-benefit analysis, how to deal with non-measurables, dealing with time horizons, stochastic vs. particular morbidity and mortality, the precautionary principle, irreversibilities, private vs. social risks, issues of informed consent, the role of experts, intergenerational equity, and mitigation vs. prevention, managing vs. eliminating risks, mitigating effects vs. preventing events, decision processes, as well as the role of coercion.

The third component covers public judgments of risk. This would treat individual vs. collective judgments, ex ante vs. ex post judgements, voluntary vs. involuntary risks, the distributional consequences of winners and losers, communications of risk analysis and preparing the public for objective risk, the optimality of risk judgements, socially manifest risk preferences, trust, and when to inform the public about what and the role of the media.

Finally, the course offers advice on how to brief Ministers on the results of risk analysis. This would deal with distilling analytic complexity, conveying strategies for managing risks, offering practical strategies for dealing with the public and making tradeoffs across objectives.
Throughout the course there will be discussion of examples and case studies such as: climate change, terrorism, diseases, pandemics, drugs and medical therapies, nuclear power, natural hazards, genetically modified organisms, pensions and savings, crime and punishment, nuclear power, and effulents, bioaccumulation and environment.

Instructor
Mel Cappe, O.C. is a professor with the School of Public Policy & Governance at the University of Toronto, and was, until early-Spring 2011, president of the Institute for Research on Public Policy (IRPP). He has held many senior positions in the federal public service including Clerk of the Privy Council, Secretary of cabinet, Head of the Public Service between 1999 and 2002, and Canada’s High Commissioner to the UK.

About the School
The University of Toronto’s School of Public Policy and Governance has two broad goals. The first is to form a hub for policy discourse, bringing researchers, practitioners, and community members together in order to contribute to policy debates, development, and discussion around many areas of expertise, both nationally and internationally. The second goal is to educate students enrolled in our innovative Master of Public Policy (MPP) program to be effective practitioners and leaders in public policy.

*A minimum 15 registrants are required for the session to proceed as scheduled.