EVEN A STALEMATE IS GREEN LIGHT FOR YEMENI, BAHRAINI REGIMES
Libya is the new barometer of the changing Middle East. The early, relatively fast, regime changes in Tunisia and Egypt raised expectations throughout the region. After thirty years of sclerosis, the wave of frustration among Arab citizens and their peaceful protests in the central squares of capital cities would, observers hoped, prove irresistible. These expectations were largely borne out in two countries where the military is professional, disciplined, well-officered, and well-led. Unfortunately, Cairo and Tunis did not set the benchmark for everyone in the Arab world.
In Yemen, huge public demonstrations have not been enough to persuade President Ali Abdullah Saleh to step aside immediately. In part that is because violent conflicts in both the north and the south of Yemen that predated the wave of public protest have raised fears that “regime change” actually split Yemen apart. Of course, the Yemeni army is far less professional and far less embedded in society than is the Egyptian army.
The other focal point is Bahrain, where long-standing resentment by the Shi’a majority against the ruling Sunni minority boiled over in wave after wave of public protest. After an initial round of violence and pressure from the United States, King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa pulled back from the use of force and committed to consultation and “dialogue” with the protestors on reform. Very little of that consultation has yet happened, but it is clear that regime change in Bahrain is unlikely.
The international community has attacked neither the Yemeni nor Bahraini regimes, nor even criticized them in any especially impactful way. Indeed, Bahrain’s rulers did not hesitate to invite a column of Saudi armour into the country to confront Bahraini protestors. Sitting on the doorstep of Saudi Arabia – which seems determined to prevent the emergence of a Shia government in Bahrain — and supported by the United States, which bases its Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, the Bahraini royal family is likely to engage in yet another round of leisurely reform, reform that is unlikely to satisfy those who have come back again and again.
Libya, of course, is an entirely different picture, both because of the intense violence that has erupted around its own rebellion and because of the aggressive international response that violence has now provoked. Libya’s demographics may look much like Egypt’s: Nearly 70% of Libya’s population is under the age of 34, and despite its oil resources, the unemployment rate among the young is very high. Indeed many young Libyans, like young Egyptians and Tunisians, rushed to join the rebellion to express their frustration and sense of grievance.
Beyond similar demographics and frustrated and aggrieved youth, however, the parallel between Egypt and Libya breaks down. Most importantly, the two countries’ armies could not be more different. Libya’s military is unprofessional, highly factionalized, divided on tribal lines, well-paid and well-armed in the west and poorly paid and poorly-equipped in the eastern part of the country. It is no surprise that the revolution began in the east, led by tribal leaders who have traditionally been hostile to Muammar Qaddafi and his tribe, which is concentrated in the areas around Surt and Tripoli. Although the rebels were thus led by members of Libya’s professional classes and joined by soldiers and airmen who deserted from Qaddafi’s army, they are no match for the better equipped military based in the west, and for the thousands of mercenaries that Qaddafi pays in cash to fight on his behalf.
The United Nations, led by two powers of “old Europe” — France and Britain — finally passed a resolution authorizing “all necessary measures” to protect civilians. The resolution is anchored in the Canadian made and Canadian led doctrine of “responsibility to protect” citizens who face imminent danger from their own governments. As Qaddafi’s accelerated his push to finish suppressing the Libyan rebellion by attacking Benghazi in the hours after the UN resolution was passed, the coalition of the willing began active preparations to use military force against Libyan forces not only in the air but also on the ground.
Now that Allied air and naval forces are enforcing the no-fly zone in Libya, leaders in other Arab countries will be watching closely. If Qaddafi is somehow able to hold the Allies to a stalemate through this most recent challenge – and remain in power, having suppressed enough of the rebellion before U.S., Canadian and European forces finally attacked him – then other rulers will draw a clear conclusion: When the protestors come, beat them back with force and do it as quickly as possible, before the international community can get itself organized.
RELATED MATERIAL FOR THE WEEK OF MARCH 21
BACKGROUND
Young people have played a crucial and often under-reported role in the ongoing revolutions in North Africa and the Middle East. Using social networking sites like Twitter and Facebook as well as SMS messaging, the young have mobilized themselves into large and influential political movements. One example of such a movement is Egypt’s January 25th Revolution Youth Coalition, which notably refused to meet with Hilary Clinton during her visit to Egypt on Tuesday, March 15th, in protest of the Obama administration’s early support for the Mubarak regime.
Though the grievances of young people should not be generalized across nations, many youth movements have much in common. For instance the young hold a deep frustration at the lack of economic opportunities in their home countries as well as exclusion from meaningful political participation. Unemployment among young people is endemic across much of the Middle East. In 2004, the International Labour Organization reported that youth unemployment had reached an all-time high, with half of the world’s unemployed people consisting of youth under the age of 24, and many of those youth living in the Middle East, North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa. Youth struggle against ethnic, sex, and age discrimination, as well as state structures that privilege elites with economic opportunities, to the detriment of the rest of the population.
Furthermore, many youth movements originated in states where young people had never seen regime change, as in Egypt, where President Hosni Mubarak ruled for nearly thirty years. In light of this, the struggle by young people to mobilize their nations to bring about democratic and representative regimes is all the more remarkable.
It is important to recognize that youth movements across the Middle East have not simply mobilized spontaneously. In fact, they have a long and rich history. In 1988, widespread youth protests in Algeria forced the government to grant wider media access and democratic election processes. Egyptian youth have been protesting the Mubarak regime for years. The BBC reported on Egyptian youth protests against Mubarak as early as 2007.
RELATED MATERIAL
- This interactive feature in the Washington Post demonstrates the relative size of the population of young adults in the Middle East and North Africa.
- The Dubai School of Government, in cooperation with the Brookings Institution, has founded the Shabab Middle East Youth Initiative, which tracks the changing needs of youth in the Middle East and carries out advocacy campaigns.
- The New Yorker reported in February 2011 on the status of unemployed youth in Algeria, where up to fifty percent of adults aged 18 to 30 cannot find work. Algerian youth have been leaders in a series of pro-democracy marches in past months, the most recent of which was put down by Algerian police.
- The Council on Foreign Relations published an interview with Ragui Assaadfrom the Humphrey School of Public Affairs at the University of Minnesota about the role of youth in protests in the Middle East and North Africa. Professor Assaad emphasized the necessity of Middle Eastern governments increasing economic and political dividends for the young in their countries.
- The New York Times talks about Global Voices, a volunteer-driven organization, and its work with worldwide bloggers to provide coverage of unrest in the Middle East and North Africa, and of the disaster in Japan.
- Also from the New York Times, Michael Slackman examines the youth-led momentum for change in Libya, Morocco, Jordan, Egypt, Tunisia, and Yemen.
- Ellen Knickmeyer from Foreign Policy discusses in this article the chronically unemployed Middle Eastern youth and their role in social and political upheaval on the Arab Street.
