TAHRIR SQUARE ENDS A GOVERNMENT AND LAUNCHES AN ERA

The euphoria of the demonstrators in Tahrir Square in Cairo is blowing through the Middle East. In less than two weeks, Egyptians humbled their president, broken the back of the security police, cracked the facade of their government, and blown open the door for political change. Egyptians, for the first time in decades, are exhilarated by the freedom to speak their minds, a freedom most could not have imagined a month ago. Not since 1952 has hope for change been as tangible and as heady.

Behind the scenes, however, more sober discussions are going on between military leaders, opposition leaders, and Omar Suleiman — the long-time government member newly appointed as Vice-President.

Any transition that now happens is likely to be carefully orchestrated and the army will likely ensure that the new rules of the game do not threaten its privileged and protected position. The people in the Tahrir Square may have unmade the last government, but they will not anoint the next one.

The process of creating a new government in Egypt will have huge consequences throughout the region. Egypt is still the cultural and political epicentre of the Arab world, even though the country long ago lost its economic clout. Throughout the Middle East, monarchies and militaries have been in place for thirty years, three decades in which the Arab world steadily fell behind others in their human development. What passed for stability covered stagnation and sclerosis mixed with repression. It is the foundation of this ersatz stability that is now cracking.

In Yemen, a poor country with a thirty-year old government that was already battling insurgencies in the south and the north, the President has announced that neither he nor his son will run in elections in 2013. In Jordan, King Abdullah has dismissed his government and promised new election. And in Palestine, President Abbas has promised to hold long-delayed elections. Even in Gaza, small numbers took to the streets to protest the authoritarianism of Hamas. Only in Syria, does the fear of an imposing security state run so deep that demonstrators took to Facebook rather than to the streets.

Young people are in the majority throughout the Middle East and their demands for freedom, jobs, and a better life will not disappear. Indeed, a successful transition in Egypt — one that happens without major violence — will only raise pressure on other Arab governments. Even governments that these winds don’t actually break will emerge bent and ready for more open politics.

Islamist parties, which vary enormously in their political orientation and their commitment to democratic norms and practices, will undoubtedly have a greater voice in Jordan and Yemen as well as Egypt and in Algeria, Tunisia, and Morocco. Ironically, Egypt’s Ikhwan (the Muslim Brotherhood) — the oldest Islamist movement anywhere and one long-harassed by the Egyptian government — is likely the most cautious. They are less like the Iranian revolutioniaries of 1979 than they are like the protestors in Iran’s streets in 2009.

All of this fundamental political change is coming to the Arab world at a turning point in world history. The United States is no longer the hegemonic power that it was in the two decades after the Cold War. Its global reach is less as it shares power with others. The old order is crumbling not only from within, but from without and long-established strategic alliances will change as the world shifts and the Arab world wakes up and brings politics back in. Opening up political space and delegitimizing Arab authoritarianism can only be good for the Arab world – and for the rest of the world.

 

RELATED MATERIAL FOR THE WEEK OF FEBRUARY 7

BACKGROUND

Across the Middle East, from Tunisia to Yemen, thousands of people have taken to the streets, protesting limited work opportunities, high food prices, and the lack of democracy and their own authoritarian regimes.  The tenures of many long-standing leaders have been challenged, including those of longtime American ally and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. Though protests in Egypt have dominated the news for over a week, Mubarak has done relatively little to accede to the protesters’ demands and by some accounts has incited the police and other citizens to violence against pro-democracy protesters. There is some prospect, as a result that protests will continue into the coming week.

The protests in the Middle East are, in many cases, rooted in the reality that the region’s recent history has been riddled with elected leaders whose terms of office have nonetheless stretched into decades. Mubarak, for instance, served as Vice-President under Anwar al-Sadat, and then assumed the Presidency himself in 1981. Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh first took office in 1978, making him the longest-running President in the country’s history. Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, until recently the President of Tunisia, had been President since 1987. These leaders have often been supported from the United States and other governments – all craving stability is a volatile region.  Egypt, for instance has received billions of dollars in foreign and military aid from the United States in return for Mubarak using Egypt’s position of power in the Middle East to maintain stability in the region.

Pressures from the street have caused leaders to make concessions, though some some concessions have been more meaningful than others. President Ben Ali is so far the only leader to step down in response to massive protests in Tunis. He currently faces an arrest warrant from Interpol. President Mubarak has pledged not to run for office and has indicated that his son Gamal Mubarak – long groomed for succession – will not run either in the upcoming September elections.  Yemen’s President, Abdullah Saleh,  also pledged not to run again when he comes up for re-election in 2013, a promise that has not satisfied protesters who are calling for him to step down much sooner.

RELATED MATERIALS

  • Maria Kornalian from Foreign Policy created Rumbles on the Arab street, a slideshow zeroing in on the wave of political unrest that has gripped the Arab world, with a focus on recent events in Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt and Kuwait.
  • Also from Foreign Policy, The Middle East Channel, a blog created by the joint efforts of the NAF Middle East Task Force and the Project on Middle East Political Science, offers doctrine-free reporting and analysis from academics, policymakers, journalists and established analysts.
  • Al Jazeera online has a series of featured spotlight pages with interviews, video and text reporting, in-depth analysis and expert opinion on recent upheavals in Tunisia, Egypt, and Algeria.
  • The Financial Times interviewed Rachid Ghannouchi, exiled leader of Tunisia’s Nahda party, in London. The interview was conducted on Sunday evening, just before a new unity government was announced in Tunis
  • Amy Goodman from indymedia radio interviews Noam Chomsky, renowned political dissident and linguist, about the Egyptian uprising and its implications for the Middle East and beyond.