SUNDAY’S REFERENDUM IS A MILESTONE FOR MULTILATERALISM

Sudan has been in crisis since it gained independence in 1956.  There has been a horrible history of marginalization:  acute economic, social and political discrimination based on ethnicity, religion and region.

Southern Sudan has suffered the most.  During the North/South civil war, Africa’s longest conflict, 2 ½ million died and over 4 million were displaced.  Atrocities were common.  Low intensity conflict lingers.

On January 9, 2011, Southern Sudanese began a week long plebiscite in which they will vote to remain part of greater Sudan or separate.  The democratic means to resolve their turmoil and trouble ultimately is a triumph of the Sudanese people.  But it also is a demonstration of commitment by the international community and sustained multilateral involvement in encouraging practical steps to resolve this crisis.

Six years ago the Sudanese government in Khartoum and the government of southern Sudan in Juba signed a Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) which ended the worst violence.  It addressed a wide range of difficult matters, established mechanisms to resolve some important remaining disputes such as contested border areas, and it set the terms for the 2011 Sudan Referendum through which the southerners will exercise their right of self-determination.

The successful CPA negotiations were aided crucially by a support process set up by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), a seven-country regional development organization in Eastern Africa.  While the United States played a pivotal role in these deliberations, Norway, Britain and others also joined this process.  The United Nations Security Council provided ongoing political support for these IGAD negotiations.  In November, 2005, the Security Council met in Nairobi, Kenya, its first meeting in 14 years outside its New York City headquarters, and adopted UNSC resolution 1564 to provide dramatic and emphatic support for the CPA and state its readiness to establish a mission to support CPA implementation.

The UN Security Council established the United Nations Mission in the Sudan (UNMIS) to facilitate contacts with the concerned Sudanese parties and eventually to introduce a UN Peacekeeping Mission in southern Sudan.  Former Denmark Development Minister Jan Pronk ably served as the Secretary-General’s Special Representative for the Sudan during this critical transition period.

UNMIS eventually grew to over 10,000 UN Peacekeepers.  While UNMIS has been unable to stop all violence in the region, it has crowded out the area where violence takes place, created space for rebuilding, and facilitated a return to some sense of normalcy where preparations for the Referendum could proceed.

Throughout this period, the African Union and its member states, especially Sudan’s 9 neighbors have been active, generally helping implementation of the CPA.  They have provided political support, advice and assistance.

Inseparable from the problems in the south have been conflicts elsewhere in Sudan, most notably in Darfur.  Here too the international community has been active.  After the murder, mayhem and misery broke out in Darfur, the African Union deployed thousands of peacekeepers (AMIS).  The UN Security Council and others provided political and other support for the deployment of the African peacekeepers.  The United States, for example, spent over $ 400 million for construction of AMIS base camps in Darfur.

In 2006, the UN Security Council adapted resolution 1769 authorizing a United Nations-African Union Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID).  Canada and the United States co-chaired a special group, Friends of UNAMID, to support and accelerate UNAMID deployment.  Today UNAMID has 26,000 personnel deployed in the region.  While the genocide in slow motion in Darfur continues, the death and destruction has been reduced and any bleed of Darfur’s difficulties have not derailed the upcoming plebiscite.

Meanwhile, the international donor community has been very active in southern Sudan.  In 2006 the World Bank organized the Sudan Consortium which brings together a range of over 100 institutions and bilateral donors to plan, coordinate, and facilitate contributions to the development of southern Sudan.  Individually and in concert these donors from all over the world have given billions of dollars to help the war ravaged land recover and to bring tangible benefits for the people.  These efforts are humanitarian, but they also contribute to the stability and sustainability of southern Sudan.  They provide a firmer foundation for implementation of the CPA and increase the possibility of a viable southern Sudan if that is the people’s will.

There are a number of critical issues that are unresolved between north and south Sudan including contested border areas, oil revenue sharing, citizenship, the future of the oil rich area of Abyei and other matters.  For many months Khartoum and Juba have been engaged in very intensive negotiations and brinksmanship addressing these outstanding issues.  The United States and other international parties, at the request of Khartoum and Juba, have been acting as facilitators to help advance these talks.  Not all of these tough issues, if any, will be settled when the Referendum begins.  These discussions will continue.  The United States and other key stakeholders in the International Community will continue to play a valuable role in advancing these deliberations and avoiding any renewal of conflict.

Tragically there continues to be low intensity violence in southern Sudan.  But thanks to the Sudan government, the Government of Southern Sudan and, most importantly, the people of Sudan, progress continues to be made toward full implementation of the CPA.  The challenges in Sudan have created worldwide attention and concern.  The International Community has been long engaged in trying to help.  Through a wide variety of multilateral cooperation and bilateral actions, countries from around the world have contributed to progress in Sudan.

This review of the role of the International community and the various means of multilateral cooperation to support Sudan, the GPA generally and the Referendum is not comprehensive but merely illustrative.  Hopefully, however, this accounting demonstrates the critical role of multilateral contributions to bringing Sudan to the cusp of a successful Referendum and a peaceful and sustainable resolution of their North/South divide.

Many dangers linger between the parties.  Continued multilateral involvement and sustained engagement will be required to avoid a return to the history, heritage and habits of warfare.  But a long distance has been traveled, progress has been made, and a peaceful resolution is possible.

By Ambassador Richard S. Williamson
Senior Fellow
Chicago Council on Global Affairs

 

RELATED MATERIAL FOR THE WEEK OF JANUARY 10

BACKGROUND

On 9 January 2011, Sudan will hold a referendum to determine whether south Sudan, already a semiautonomous region, will become its own country.

The tension between North and South Sudan is the result of religious, ethnic, and geographic divides, which were exacerbated by British colonial rule. Northern Sudanese tend to identify principally as Arab, while Southerners are more frequently Christians and animists, though in past decades emigration and forced displacement has led to a surge in the population of Southerners living in Northern Sudan.

Soon after the British colonial government withdrew from Sudan in 1956, civil war between the North and South broke out and continued with varying intensity over the next five decades. The civil war in Sudan was marked by extreme violence and even genocide in the Darfur region – though Darfur is in the West and a separate region.

During the war, neighbouring states and concerned donors attempted to bring an end to the conflict.  The UN Nations supported the peace initiative through its work with the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD), a seven-country regional development organization in East Africa. UN senior officials attended IGAD summit meetings and carried out consultations with regional governments and organizations to facilitate the peace process. Such efforts were part of a long process that led to the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement in 2005. This brought the conflict in Sudan to a formal close, though tension continues to pervade relations between the North and the South.

The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (or Naivasha Agreement) consists of a series of agreements signed to put an end to armed conflict between the north and south, develop democratic governance and share oil revenues. The Peace Agreement also created a timetable for Southern Sudan to have a referendum on its independence.

South Sudan may face opposition by the Sudanese government if its people vote in favor of independence . Oil-export revenue, generated by oil resources in the south, is a boon for the North and its government is unlikely to willingly cede control of the south’s oil resources. However, a perceived softening of attitudes observed in the Sudanese government may indicate a greater potential for peaceful secession. During his visit to the south on 4 January 2011, Sudanese President Al-Bashir said his government would be the “first to recognize” an independent South, though he later claimed that the South is ill-prepared for independence.

More recently, celebrity activists such as George Clooney and Don Cheadle have campaigned to end conflict in Sudan/Darfur via their advocacy group, Not on Our Watch. Clooney is joined by John Prendergast, co-founder of the Enough Project, an initiative to end genocide and crimes against humanity, in his highly publicized visits to Sudan to draw political and social attention to the crisis.

To vote in the referendum, South Sudanese – residing in Sudan or elsewhere – must be registered during the registration period between 15 November and 9 December 2010.

RELATED MATERIAL

  • Al Jazeera features a special documentary on Sudan entitled Sudan: History of a Broken Land. The documentary highlights the challenges that have faced the Sudanese people in the past decade and provides historical context for the current referendum. The documentary is accompanied by a gallery of images of Sudan, which illustrate the divide between urban and rural communities as well as the economic inequality between North and South Sudan.
  • Richard Downey and Brian Kennedy of the Center for Strategic and International Studies compiled a report in November 2010 on the upcoming referendum in Sudan, entitled Sudanese Perspectives on the 2011 Referendum. CSIS has also published updates on the situation in Sudan, one of which addresses questions regarding the likelihood of an outcome in favour of secession as well as the attitude of President Omar al Bashir toward potential secession.
  • Human Rights Watch noted in a December 16th press release the importance of protecting minority rights, such as the rights of Southern Sudanese living in the North, during and after the upcoming referendum. The release indicates that there is limited evidence of such protections being in place and noted with concern that ruling parties from both regions have engaged in rhetoric that suggests that minorities in the North and South may face further discrimination.
  •  The United Nations Mission in Sudan was put in place to support the implementation of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement, and is currently tasked with facilitating the return of refugees to the South and partly overseeing the upcoming referendum.
  • In “Winds of War”, a special edition of NBC Dateline, Ann Curry, George Clooney and John Prendergast travel to Southern Sudan to shine a spotlight on the tumultuous region as the January referendum approaches.