Ontario 360’s new paper, How to Improve Energy Forecasting in Ontario, outlines operational and policy reforms to improve forecasting as part of the Ontario government’s long-term energy planning.
The paper is co-authored by University of Toronto adjunct law professor George Vegh and law student Ian T.D. Thomson. It sets out a plan to bring greater rigour, stress-testing, and transparency to the energy forecasting that serves as the foundation for energy policymaking in the province.
Vegh and Thomson outline factors that can lead to poor forecasting and show how they have contributed to large forecasting errors in Ontario over the past several decades. They propose operational and policy options – including subjecting the government’s energy forecasts to more independent analysis – to improve reliability for the purposes of long-term energy planning.
Future Ontario 360 policy papers, briefing memos, and online discussions will set out additional research and analysis on policy reforms for a post-pandemic recovery strategy, with the overarching goal of achieving higher rates of inclusive growth in the Province of Ontario and across the country.
