IS IT TIME TO START OVER WITH NORTH KOREA?

North Korea (DPRK) continues to threaten its neighbors and international society with a series of military and nuclear provocations, including its second nuclear test (May 2009), its sinking of the South Korean naval ship Cheonan (March 2010), its revelation of a uranium enrichment program, and its shelling of the South Korean Island Yeongpyoeng-do (November 2010).

North Korean hostility is nothing new, of course. During the Cold War era, North Korea’s terrorist attacks were not uncommon. The DPRK even used to send troops and agents in attempts to kill South Korean Presidents to Seoul in 1968 and to Myanmar in 1983. North Korean agents also blew up a civilian Korean airplane in 1987, killing 115 passengers.

But when the Cold War ended, inter-Korean hostility was expected to end, or at least lighten. To the contrary, North Korea now poses even greater danger. Even during the “Sunshine Policy” period from 1998 to 2007 — when South Korea offered the North generous food assistance and economic cooperation — the North responded with naval clashes in the West (Yellow) Sea and clandestine nuclear programs.

Through all this, North Korea’s nuclear weapons capability has expanded without respite. North Korea developed its program despite the inter-Korean Denuclearization Declaration (1991), the U.S-North Korea Agreed Framework (1994) and Six-party Joint Statement (2005), . Even during the six-party talks since 2003, there were two nuclear tests, numerous reprocessing activities and uranium enrichment program.

In the past, South Korea and the West made a few mistakes when dealing with the North, especially by underestimating North Korea’s durability. After the end of the Cold War and again after Kim Il-sung’s death, many predicted that North Korea soon would collapse. Some reports suggest that, in 1994, the United States even considered providing North Korea with a light-water reactor, assuming that the communist state would soon topple.

The West also underestimated North Korea’s will and capability to acquire nuclear armament. After its nullification of the 1994 Agreed Framework in 2002, North Korea struck back with nuclear tests. In addition, few predicted that North Korea could start a massive nuclear enrichment program quickly. International sanctions and an export control regime against North Korea failed to block it from acquiring foreign advanced technology, materials and equipment for enrichment program.

Recently North Korea has propagated the national goal of building a “Powerful and Prosperous State” by 2012: the year of the 100th anniversary of late Kim Il-sung’s birth; the 70th birthday of Kim Jong-il; and the 30th birthday of Kim Jung-eun, the third son of Kim Jong-il and now the ‘informal’ heir to leadership.

North Korea may not soon collapse, but its various efforts to revitalize its economy do seem doomed to failure. Its economic philosophy remains mired in a combination of Communist ideology and a ‘self-help’ economic management system. The combination has prevented the North from feeding its people, has raised public discontent and increased instability. For those reasons, the North’s mid- to long-term sustainability is seriously in question. The North Korean regime relies on a strong and repressive state control apparatus in order to keep its antiquated political and economic systems afloat and its people controlled. The North Korean regime is very likely to pursue continuing aggressive nuclear and military tactics so that the increased tension on the Peninsula can be used to maintain domestic order in the DPRK.

For all these reasons, the world may face a more unstable, daring and nuclear-arming North Korea in coming years as it passes through an unprecedented third-generation power succession process amid mounting economic difficulties and systemic instability.

Still worse, the world enters this period knowing that all previous engagements and denuclearization policies toward North Korea have not worked.

It is time for South Korea and other members of the 6-Party Talks to review and consolidate the policy toward North Korea and restart the North Korean denuclearization and inter-Korean reconciliation processes. Only in this way can the countries hope to deter North Korea’s military provocations.

 

By Jun Bong-Geun
Professor
IFANS

 

RELATED MATERIAL FOR THE WEEK OF DECEMBER 20

BACKGROUND

The Korean Empire ruled the Korean peninsula until its annexation by Japan after the Russo-Japanese War. Following the end of World War II, the peninsula was liberated and occupied by US forces in the south and Soviet forces in the north. In 1948, a UN supervised election was held in the south and established a democracy in South Korea. However, North Korea refused to participate in the 1948 election and established a Communist government under the Soviet backed leadership of Kim Il-Sung. This political divide deepened the division between north and south, and border skirmishes and raids along the 38th parallel were frequent in the months preceding the Korean War.

On 25 June 1950, the Korean War began when North Korean forces invaded South Korea. The UN sent forces to help South Korea repel the invasion.  The sweeping of UN – principally American forces – north toward  the Yalu River – the border between the North and China – led the People’s Republic of China to send forces south to engage the UN forces.. In 1953, an Armistice Agreement was signed which ended the fighting and created a demilitarized buffer zone between the two Koreas. However, since a peace treaty was never signed, the two countries are officially still at war.

In spite of the armistice, relations remained tense due to North Korean acts of aggression, and clashes over border disputes. On 23 November 2010, tensions escalated as the two Koreas exchanged fire for the fourth time in recent years near the maritime western border. This happened a mere days after delegations to North Korea confirmed that it is expanding its nuclear capabilities with a new enrichment facility at Yongbyon.

RELATED MATERIAL AND SITES

  • The Guardian compiles up-to-date news on developments between North and South Korea on their Guardian Unlimited Special Report on North Korea.
  • The East Asia Forum has also compiled articles on North Korea and Korea. The most recent article, published on December 19th and written by Andrei Lankov of Kookmin University in Seoul, explores the question of “How to Prevent the Next Korean War.”
  • In October 2009, Senior Adviser to the National Bureau of Asian Research Nicholas Eberstadt compiled a list of books on Korean politics for Foreign Affairs, which can be found here.
  • Reuters has released several videos providing updates on the recent escalation in tensions between North and South Korea. Among them are a statement by International Atomic Energy Agency Director Yukiyo Amano concerning North Korea’s nuclear program, as well as a report on the recent visit to North Korea by United States Governor Bill Richardson.