THE MORE, NOT THE MERRIER

Asia is in the middle of a very impressive flurry of regional meetings and the acronyms, new and old, are multiplying. But in multilateral politics, growing competition among new players is not the sign of health it is in free-market economics. An alphabet-soup of regional fora such as the one we now see in Asia is usually a sign of geopolitical weakness and structural uncertainty in a region.

Indeed, Asia’s explosion of regional diplomatic, economic and security bodies reflects a historic period of geo-strategic and identity flux. None of the major power relationships – between the US, China, Russia, Japan and India – are predictable any longer, other than the US-Japan relationship. And even this one is looking less certain than before.

This month saw the inaugural meeting of the “Asia Defense Ministers Meeting (ADMM )+8” process in Hanoi, which brought together the defense ministers of the 10 ASEAN members with those of the United States, China, Japan, Russia, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand. ADMM+8, scheduled to meet again in Brunei in 2013, is the first formal regional meeting of defense ministers that included all of these. Before, only the track-two Shangri-la Dialogue run by a British think-tank served this function in Asia. ASEAN itself only had its first ASEAN defense ministers’ Meeting in 2005 – 38 years after ASEAN itself was formed.

This month ends with Vietnam, chair of ASEAN, hosting no fewer than three multilateral meetings. The ASEAN leaders’ summit is its centrepiece. But it will also host the fifth annual East Asia Summit (EAS) which brings ASEAN’s 10 leaders together with China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, India and New Zealand. The United States and Russia will each send a cabinet member as an observer to that meeting though it is anticipated that at the next EAS US and Russian leaders will attend. And Vietnam will also host the 12th “ASEAN+3 (APT)” leaders’ meeting – this one with ASEAN leaders plus only China, Japan and South Korea.

In November, action moves beyond ASEAN and the suffering protocol officers of the Vietnamese government to the 17th APEC leaders meeting in Yokohama, Japan – at just about the same time that South Korea hosts the G20 leaders meeting – with President Barak Obama attending both.

Just keeping everyone’s dance card straight is tough. Japan, China and South Korea are in all of these meetings but ASEAN. Vietnam is in all of them, but the G20. Australia is in four of these meetings, but not in ASEAN and APT. Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar are also in four and excluded from two, this time APEC and the G-20.

The United States and Russia are in three and out of three; so is New Zealand, but not the same pair of threes. So is India — in the G20, EAS and ADMM+8, but out of APEC, the APT and ASEAN. Mexico is in APEC and the G20 but in no ASEAN–organized meeting. Only one country will be in every meeting: Indonesia, whose President Yudhoyono will probably lose his voice by the time he arrives in Japan to hoist on his APEC garb.

For all of that work, every one of these six organizations has been widely criticized as ineffective for years – for 43 years in the case of ASEAN. That label is already sticking to the newest one, ADMM+8, after only about one week in existence.

And there are new signs of dysfunction in these networks. One sign: India is included in some of these networks but excluded from others. Another sign: ASEAN – which groups the region’s weakest and smallest states, plus Indonesia – is actually now in the role of regional convenor. Finally, Russia and the US will most likely be asked to join the EAS next year as members, but that already will be a full 6 years after the EAS was formed as a regional forum to discuss strategic issues.

At the global level, the G20 was formed in response to a historical shift in global power. In Asia, the epicenter of this very shift, many organizations are being created, renewed and expanded. Like the G20, none will likely have a clear and certain future until this shift has crystallized, and some may even perish.

By Malcolm Cook
Lowy Institute

 

RELATED MATERIAL FOR THE WEEK OF OCTOBER 25

BACKGROUND

The political and economic “rise” of Southeast and East Asia has impressed observers for decades. In fact, ever since the so-called “East Asian Miracle” of high economic growth with strong social indicators became apparent in the mid 1980s, experts and laymen alike have been eager to determine exactly which mix of factors might serve to reproduce this development “miracle” beyond the region. Moreover, rapid economic growth has drawn considerable political clout to East and Southeast Asian nations, with South Korea, Indonesia, and Vietnam, among others, taking an increasingly active role in global governance.

The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum (APEC) and The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)

Asian states have also engaged in regional governance. Leaders from states claiming a border with the Pacific Ocean, including most Southeast and East Asian states as well as states in North and South America, meet annually at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, or APEC. A smaller group of states, consisting primarily of Southeast Asian states, meets in the form of ASEAN, or the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. ASEAN today consists of the following 10 member states: Brunei, Burma (Myanmar), Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.  ASEAN has developed a series of relationships with the east Asian states most notably the APT or ASEAN plus three consisting of ASEAN and the Republic of Korea, Japan and China.

The ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and the East Asian Summit (EAS)

Both regional groupings – ASEAN and APEC – are often seen as counterbalances to regional economic blocs in Europe and North America. But ASEAN also aims to act as a security and political bloc – note the creation of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) consisting of the Foreign Ministers of the ASEAN countries plus dialogue countries including Australia, Canada, China, EU, India, Japan, New Zealand, Republic of Korea, Russia and the United States.  The ARF is the principal forum for the security dialogue in Asia.

In addition, leaders from ASEAN plus Australia, China, India, Japan, Republic of Korea and New Zealand  have begun to meet annually – beginning in 2005 in Kuala Lumpur Malaysia – in the East Asian Summit (EAS) to discuss broader strategic, political and economic issues of common concern.  APEC’s mission statement notes, however,  that it aims primarily to “sustain economic growth and prosperity.” It has avoided any wider security aspect as it includes Taiwan as well as China.

Economic Regionalism, But Political Sovereignty

Though APEC and ASEAN have become entrenched in Asian policy agendas, the emergence of  regionalism in East and Southeast Asia has been weak, particular when juxtaposed with Europe. Unlike European regionalism, Asian regionalism is still based largely in economics; the discussion of broader security issues has emerged only in ASEAN, and even then in a limited fashion. The principle of mutual respect of sovereignty has been and remains a strong foundation for Asian regional relations, which has meant that many policy issues have remained off the table for discussion, in order to prevent member states from encroaching on each others’ sovereign affairs.

APEC leaders will meet in Yokohama, Japan from 13-14 November for their annual Summit. Among other issues, leaders will discuss the currently stalled Doha Round, as well as the potential for admitting new members into the organization.

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