The Canada Centre for Global Security Studies (at the Munk School of Global Affairs) recently held another in its Brazil Seminar Series. João Augusto de Castro Neves was the distinguished speaker. As Latin America Director for Eurasia Group (Washington, D.C.), Castro Neves specializes in analysis of the political economy and foreign policy of his native Brazil.
In his presentation, Castro Neves explored Brazilian political and economic developments with an eye to the fall presidential election, and provided some insight into what can be expected beyond 2014. Unlike many media analyses that suggest Brazil is oscillating between its most recent “boom” and an upcoming period of “bust,” Castro Neves suggested the kind of more nuanced appraisal that might be expected from a firm focusing on “political risk.”
Despite the criticisms President Dilma Rousseff faces amongst political pundits, it was argued, recent poll data for the presidential election suggests that electoral victory will likely rest safely in her hands. Various questions and concerns do loom as potential factors that could complicate Brazil’s political landscape prior to the election, however.
The most important issue in the upcoming election will be the state of Brazil’s economy. Unlike her predecessor, President Lula de Silva, President Rousseff’s first term was not the beneficiary of the Chinese-driven commodities boom. Instead, sluggish growth since the recession continues to disappoint and her first term is poised to mark Brazil’s lowest growth levels since the early 1990s. Fortuitously, however, unemployment levels reached historically low levels this January, leaving President Rousseff seemingly immune from severe political backlash.
Social unrest during the upcoming World Cup could additionally complicate the re-election race. Despite the waves of protest that swept across Brazil last summer, the incumbent’s support has largely recovered from the decline experienced in those months. Although similar eruptions are less likely, the growing demands from Brazil’s budding middle class are acutely apparent.
Looking beyond the election, the changing demands of the middle class will continue to change the face of Brazilian politics as new political priorities emerge. With pressures for public spending and “quality of life” priorities becoming a growing concern, the government will be forced to make tough decisions in the face of fiscal constraints. Tough political trade-offs will become increasingly unavoidable. Despite the challenges ahead, Castro Neves remains optimistic about Brazil’s future – hoping, for instance, that the constrained circumstances will generate what he sees as necessary macroeconomic reform.
Following the Castro Neves presentation, J. V. Pimentel (Brazil’s new Consul-General in Toronto) launched questions from the audience, with a lively discussion amongst participants unfolding.
(Reporting by Benjamin Crase)
