Russia Attacks Ukraine: A Q&A with Janice Stein
By Lani Krantz
Published February 24, 2022 at 10:30am ET
Russian President Vladimir Putin launched an all-out attack on Ukraine by air, land, and sea only days after he ordered his military into two separatist regions of the country.
Canada, the U.S., the U.K., Germany, Japan, Australia, and the EU have all announced sanctions and other penalties for what is being viewed as a clear act of aggression against Ukraine’s sovereignty. Diplomatic talks have stalled, Russia evacuated its embassy in Kyiv on Wednesday and the attack began even as members of the UN held an emergency discussion at Ukraine’s request.
We spoke with Janice Stein, the Munk School’s founding director and the Belzberg Professor of Conflict Management in the Department of Political Science and the Munk School, early Thursday morning, hours after the first Russian bombardments.
Q: With the attacks overnight, Putin seems to have acted on his threats of war. How far can we expect him to take this?
A: Formally, Russia invaded on Monday when it sent its troops over the border into the republics of Luhansk and Donetsk, which President Putin has recognized as independent. The war began eight years ago and escalated when Russia bombarded all of Ukraine’s cities and its tanks and artillery rolled across the border. Does Putin plan further escalation? Only he knows, but early military action suggests a wide and deep offensive in Ukraine, far beyond the “peacekeeping” operation in Luhansk and Donetsk that Putin ordered officially. In that aggressive and angry speech he delivered a few days ago, Putin made sweeping claims about restoring greater Russia and argued that Ukraine became independent only through the foolish mistakes of past Russian leaders. Ukraine has declared a state of emergency, mobilized its reserves and its national guard, and ordered its citizens to take shelter, but its armed forces are badly outnumbered by Russian forces.
People in Ukraine have been living with this dispute since 2014. Can you explain how the recent escalations suggested a departure from what was happening before?
In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea and sent militia forces over the border into parts of Donetsk and Luhansk. Today, regular Russian military forces began a bombardment of all of Ukraine and sent ground forces across multiple points in Ukraine, far beyond Donetsk and Luhansk. The fabricated stories of fighting in these two provinces were clearly the pretext for a full-on invasion.
What is NATO’s role?
NATO, a collective defence organization, is obligated to come to the defence of its members. Ukraine is NOT a member of NATO, but several former Soviet republics that now border Russia are – Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia, as well as Poland and Romania. NATO is currently reinforcing its deployment in Latvia and Canada is sending additional forces. NATO will try to support the Ukrainian resistance with weapons and supplies but will find it challenging to do because Russia already controls the airspace over Ukraine. It will not send troops to Ukraine. Ukraine, in other words, stands alone in the face of the Russian attack. Europe, the United States, Canada, and Japan are all responding with increasingly serious economic sanctions, but these sanctions will not deter Russian forces.
Is there a path back to a more peaceful rhetoric?
The window for diplomatic activity is vanishing to none. Putin seems to be seeking the political decapitation of the Ukrainian government as well as the occupation of parts of Ukrainian territory that matter to Russia. Ukraine’s independence will be fatally compromised. This is absolutely tragic for Ukraine, that finds itself the victim of aggression by its powerful neighbour, but terrible as well for Russia.
Now that Putin has attacked Ukraine, what is at stake in terms of global security?
European confidence in the foundational norm that the borders of a sovereign state cannot be changed unilaterally by force has been shattered. A Russian attack marks the end of one era and the beginning of another of complex, trilateral great power rivalry with European confidence in its own security shaken to the core. Great power rivalry, which some had hoped had been relegated to the ashbin of history, is back with a vengeance.
Russia’s Attack on Ukraine:
An Expert Roundtable
The Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy will hold a public discussion on Friday, February 25, 2022 at 2pm ET on the latest developments related to Russia’s attack on Ukraine.
Hosted by celebrated broadcaster and Munk School Distinguished Fellow Peter Mansbridge, the event will feature a roundtable of experts including Columbia University’s Timothy M. Frye, Olexiy Haran of Kyiv Mohyla Academy, and the University of Toronto’s Janice Stein, founding director of the Munk School and Lucan Way, co-director of the Munk School’s Petro Jacyk Program for the Study of Ukraine. Register for the event now.