What determines implicit associations and explicit attitudes towards belligerent states during wartime? Scholars have increasingly noted the important role played by both implicit (or affect-based) and explicit (or cognition-based) attitudes in explaining important elements of political behavior, but there has been little prior research on implicit attitudes during wartime. Further, there is theoretical and empirical disagreement as to whether one of several possible identity categories, such as citizenship or ethnicity, or the dynamics of the conflict should determine attitudes. We use an implicit association test (IAT) and a questionnaire in four Ukrainian cities to determine 600 respondents’ relative preferences for Ukraine or Russia, deploying nationally representative survey data to perform robustness checks on our IAT recruitment and measurement strategy. We find that ethnicity does not predict absolute preference for one state over the other, but rather that all ethnic groups across all cities express pro-Ukraine views on average in both explicit attitudes and implicit associations. The relatively high degree of congruence between explicit and implicit attitudes, the latter of which are very difficult to manipulate and are therefore immune from social desirability bias or other forms of preference falsification, suggests that respondents are generally comfortable expressing their pro-Ukraine views. These findings speak to international relations literature on diversionary conflict and rally-effects and comparative politics literature on ethnicity and conflict. They challenge theories that suggest ethnic minority diaspora populations (in this case, ethnic Russian citizens of Ukraine) may feel allegiance to an external homeland in times of conflict.

Aaron Erlich is an Assistant Professor at McGill University. His current research interests include the impact of information in developing countries, measurement, democratization, and experimental design. Previous work has appeared in American Political Science Review and Comparative Political Studies, among other journals.