| Date | Time | Location |
|---|---|---|
| Friday, December 4, 2009 | 2:00PM - 4:00PM | Seminar Room 208N, Munk Centre For International Studies 1 Devonshire Place |
The dominant global narrative today is that China is the first nation to emerge from the global downturn and that it will go on to become the world’s dominant power. After all, we are living in China’s century.
Predictions of the country’s success are based on the strength of its economy. China’s economic model, however, is particularly ill-suited for current global conditions. Its economy, pre-crisis, was heavily dependent on exports, with some 38 percent of its gross domestic product then attributable to sales abroad. To make up for slumping global demand, Beijing is implementing a stimulus program that, unfortunately, will result in large imbalances and dislocations.
We could see the economy stumble during the middle of next year. When it does so, the country’s one-party system, dependent on the continual delivery of prosperity, will have a difficult time sustaining itself in the face of devastating social and political consequences.
There will one day be a Chinese century. It just won’t be this one.
Gordon G. Chang is the author of “The Coming Collapse of China” and “Nuclear Showdown: North Korea Takes On the World”, both from Random House. He has given government briefings in Washington and Ottawa. His writings have appeared in The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal among other publications. Mr. Chang has appeared on CNN, Canadian Broadcasting Corp., and other networks. He was a guest on The Daily Show with Jon Stewart. He now writes a column at Forbes.com.
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