Friday, October 23rd, 2015 Is the Middle Class a Harbinger of Democracy? Evidence from Southeast Asia

Description

A vast body of literature claims that the middle class is a critical force for democratic transitions, democratic consolidation, and political stability. Yet, recent events in Thailand and in other Southeast Asian newly-industrializing countries (NICs), indicate that the middle class often challenges democratic regimes or supports authoritarian juntas. How should we reconcile these divergent views of the middle class? This presentation argues that an explanation for the behavior of the middle class in relation to regime-type must begin by looking at the state’s role in addressing the interests of the middle class. Where a state addresses the key concerns of the middle class – rule of law, economic development, and political stability – this class is unlikely to rebel against the state. Institutionalized states are most likely to satisfy middle-class interests, while patrimonial or clientelistic states are particularly vulnerable to middle-class rebellion precisely because they are unable to satisfy middle-class interests and values. A comparison of three Southeast Asian newly-industrializing economies will thus show that middle-class support for democracy is highly contingent on the structural conditions in which they find themselves embedded.

Erik Martinez Kuhonta is Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science and Member of the Institute for the Study of International Development at McGill University. He is author of The Institutional Imperative: The Politics of Equitable Development in Southeast Asia (Stanford University Press, 2011), which was short-listed for the Canadian Political Science Association Prize in Comparative Politics. He is co-editor of Party System Institutionalization in Asia: Democracies, Autocracies, and the Shadow of the Past (Cambridge University Press, 2015) and Southeast Asia in Political Science: Theory, Region, and Qualitative Analysis (Stanford University Press, 2008). Kuhonta has published articles in Pacific Affairs, Contemporary Southeast Asia, Comparative Political Studies, Asian Survey, and Pacific Review. He received his Ph.D. from Princeton University.