Description

In the course of diplomatic interactions, the leader of a state may make promises or threats to induce another state to act (or deter from acting) in certain ways, but if they are not carried out, the leader is likely to suffer some political costs domestically. These costs are called domestic “audience costs”. While the concept has been central to the literature of international relations theory for some time, there has been only scant attempt to show empirically whether such costs actually exist and to what degree the costs vary across different democracies. This study expands on Tomz’ work on audience cost in the UK and the US: Japan’s prime minister is usually described as one of the least influential political leaders within the family of advanced democracies. Furthermore, throughout the post World War II period, Japan has never engaged in military activities, and its foreign policy options have been limited to less aggressive means such as the imposition of economic sanctions and the dispatch of peacekeeping forces under the United Nations’ auspices. While Japan is thus a “least likely case” where it would be difficult to find the domestic audience, the evidence shows unequivocally that the leaders in Japan seem to suffer audience costs identical to those found in the United States and Great Britain.

Professor Kohno is currently the Director of the Research Institute of Contemporary Japanese systems at Waseda University. He also serves as Research Affiliate for Waseda Institute for Advanced Studies and as Advisor for the University’s International Affairs Division. Before joining Waseda, he taught at University of British Columbia (1994-98) and at Aoyama Gakuin University (1998-2003), and he was a national fellow at the Hoover Institution (1996-97). Professor Kohno received his Bachelor of Laws in 1985 from Sophia University, M.A. (International Relations) in 1987 from Yale, and Ph.D. (political science) in 1994 from Stanford.