Understanding China’s Growth: Past, Present and Future
Friday, November 23rd, 2012
| Date | Time | Location |
|---|---|---|
| Friday, November 23, 2012 | 4:00PM - 6:00PM | Seminar Room 208N, Munk School of Global Affairs 1 Devonshire Place |
Series
East Asia Seminar Series
Description
The pace and scale of China’s economic transformation in the last three decades have no historical precedent. In this paper I discuss the driving force of this transformation and the future prospects of China’s growth. I will begin by discussing briefly China’s historical growth performance and then compare the growth patterns for the period from 1952 to 1978 and the period since 1978. The main focus of this paper will be to examine the sources of growth since 1978. Perhaps surprisingly, given China’s well-documented sky-high rates of saving and investment, I will argue that China’s rapid growth over the last three decades has been driven by productivity growth rather than by capital investment. Overall, gradual and persistent institutional change and policy reforms that have reduced distortions and improved economic incentives are the main reasons for the productivity growth. I conclude by discussing China’s future growth prospects and the challenges the economy faces.
Xiaodong Zhu is a professor of economics at the University of Toronto and a special term professor at the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance. He has published many articles on growth, development and the Chinese economy in leading economics journals and is a co-editor of China Economic Review
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